Since the Chengdu Conference in 1994, the leadership of the Communist Party of Vietnam has always relied on China to hold and maintain power. The idiom “When it rains in Beijing, Hanoi holds up an umbrella” refers to the close relationship between the two ruling parties, in Vietnam and China.
The visit to Beijing by National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue took place on April 71-12, in the context of the Vietnamese leadership’s struggling is at its most fierce. Vo Van Thuong’s forced resignation as State President in March 2024 is considered to have threatened General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s leadership.
Vietnam’s state-controlled media reported that during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 8, Chairman Hue affirmed that building strategic relations with China is a priority of Vietnam’s leadership.
As for China, President Xi Jinping said that the most outstanding feature of the relationship between the two countries is the relationship of “both comrades and brothers.” At the same time, Xi called on both sides to make efforts to promote the building of a “China-Vietnam Community of Shared Future” to bring benefits to protecting political stability between the two Parties, as well as global socialist system.
From the lesson, General Secretary Trong went from losing ground to then Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, but thanks to relying heavily on Beijing, he dramatically turned before the 12th National Congress in 2016. As a result, at that congress, General Secretary Trong emerged and became a leader with absolute power within the Party.
Minister of Public Security To Lam in recent years has also been considered a “super powerful” figure. Since the 12th National Congress, by exposing a series of corruption cases, General Lam has gradually asserted a unique position – the one who truly holds dominant power on the Vietnamese political chessboard. That is the reason why the relationship between Trong and Lam has deteriorated rapidly, as it is now.
Like General Secretary Trong, Minister Lam also relied on China to gain power. However, the fact that both opposing factions within the Communist Party of Vietnam rely on a Beijing boss, does it cause conflict? Likewise, in the relationship of power and position between Trong’s faction and Lam’s faction, who will Xi support?
According to analysts, Lam’s recent “shuttle” trips to Beijing are just a relationship between two ministries in the two countries’ governments. Xi did not meet and personally receive Lam, and this was weakness of the police side in the leadership war in Hanoi.
Although, in the meeting between him and China’s Deputy Minister of Public Security on January 10, 2023, Lam also expressed his desire for China to help and maintain the absolute rule of the Communist Party and the Socialist regime. This is similar to Hue’s proposal to Xi.
In the past, Lam had a close relationship with former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung – a figure with pro-Western tendencies. This is a weakness that has caused many high-ranking leaders of the Party to “lose their lives.” The fall lesson of Standing Committee of the Secretariat Dinh The Huynh after the 12th National Congress, is a terrible example. This is one of the reasons why Lam decided to rely entirely on China to maintain and consolidate power.
However, the “rest” of the current Party leadership will rally around Trong to join hands against Lam, for their own benefit.
Experts say that for a long time, Beijing has been preparing a plan to replace Trong with a figure more pro-China, even more bloody, in maintaining the authoritarian totalitarian regime in Vietnam.
The relationship between General Secretary Trong and the Nghe Tinh faction, which is a pedestal, also comes from the good relationship with Beijing. During Xi’s visit to Hanoi in December 2023, the person who directly brought Xi to late President Ho Chi Minh’s mausoleum was Phan Dinh Trac – a powerful arm of Trong from Nghe An.
In terms of conditions, Trong is old, his intelligence is declining, and he has no longer been of any use to Beijing; to Xi, Lam, who is younger and has strong authority, will be a good alternative.
But with Hue’s on-going visit to Beijing, there is a high possibility that Beijing will not help Lam become General Secretary for the next term.
If that’s the case, Lam should prepare himself to receive a “great storm” from Nghe An and General Secretary Trong.
At that time, who will save Lam?./.
Tra My – Thoibao.de
