Unclear who win who lose after 9th Plenum

On the morning of May 18, the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) completed its 9th Plenum. The state-controlled media reported:

“General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong emphasized that the Central Committee democratically discussed, carefully considered, and highly agreed on a plan to elect State President and Chairman of the National Assembly, so that the National Assembly can consider at the 7th session of the country’s highest legislative body scheduled on May 20, 2024.

However, the names of the new State President and the new Chairman of the National Assembly have not yet been announced. On the same afternoon, the press announced that incumbent Minister of Public Security To Lam would be State President while Tran Thanh Man would be Chairman of the National Assembly.

Perhaps, because the fractions fought each other for the position of Minister of Public Security, leading to a tug-of-war between the fractions for the position of State President. But in the end, the parties agreed on the final decision.

Currently, foreign investors are turning away from Vietnam, because they are worried about a period of political instability. If the fractions still continue to fight, to the point of not being able to find common ground, it is an act of chasing away foreign capital. The more the political crisis at the top, the more devastated Vietnam’s economy becomes.

What the Party leadership and the Government need to do now is to regain trust with foreign investors to limit the current bleeding of foreign investment capital. However, with party chief Trong’s mindset and health, and with the “you die – I live” fighting situation in the Politburo, it is difficult to do so.

Trong is no longer capable of controlling General Lam, so how can he fulfill his role of maintaining political stability for Vietnam? Furthermore, he himself has created a bad precedent, when he does not respect the law and the Party’s law – he is a rebel. Because where laws are not respected so there is no stability.

As a result, To Lam has to sit as State President, and no matter what the selection of the Minister of Public Security, the fight will continue, and will become even more complicated and dramatic. There are only two scenarios: First, General Secretary Trong forces Lam to become State President and blocks the Hung Yen group from taking over the Ministry of Public Security; Second, let Lam hold the position of State President and accept the arrangement for Lam’s people to hold the ministry.

If the first possibility happens, it will be a victory for the party chief’s side. After that, he still had a lot of work to do. That is, gradually cutting off Lam’s people, and finally taking action against Lam. But taking action against State President will continue to cause a political crisis.

With the second ability, Lam became State President and at the same time brought his people to the Ministry of Public Security. In this case, Lam will control the next game, and the person who will have to defend is General Secretary Trong.

Let’s wait and see who the Politburo will choose to replace Lam. Which side wins and which side loses will be clear in the next few days.


Thai Ha – Thoibao.de