Leaked internal information said that Phan Dinh Trac will replace General To Lam as Minister of Public Security while the incumbent police chief will take the possition of State President. If this is true, it can be considered a victory for the Nghe An political faction, not a victory for Phan Dinh Trac personally.
Why?
General Lam was determined to defeat Vo Van Thuong to join the Four Pillars, also because he wanted to avoid the age limit regulation in the Politburo. Lam is 67 years old this year. If he stays as Minister until the end of his term, he will be 69 years old. At that time, he will be forced to retire, because the age limit to stay in the Politburo is no more than 65 years old.
Trac is now 66 years old, by 2026, he will be 68 years old. Thus, by the 14th National Congress, he was too old to stay in the Politburo. Meanwhile, the “special rate” is only for figures in the Four Pillars, not for other Politburo members. Thus, even if he holds the Ministry of Public Security, Trac will not be able to stay in the Politburo in the next term, unless he betrays again to overthrow Lam, as Lam did to overthrow Thuong.
The situation is currently very tense, Lam is demanding too much for his Hung Yen faction. He wants the position of State President, the position of Minister of Public Security, and the position of Head of the Central Committee’s Commission for Organization to be hold by his fraction, so the Nghe An faction cannot “stand by and watch.” And Trac was forced to compete for the position of Minister of Public Security, as a way to stop Lam’s progress.
By making Lam weaker, it also means that the Nghe An fraction is safe, in which top legislator Vuong Dinh Hue is the biggest beneficiary.
Thus, Trac jumping into the position of Minister of Public Security was only for the purpose of “paving the way” for Hue, not for him to seek political benefits at the Four Pillars. Hue is the same age as Lam, but he belongs to the Four Pillars, so he can absolutely enjoy a “special rate” at the 14th National Congress slated in early 2026.
Jumping into the Ministry of Public Security, Trac’s task is very heavy and difficult. With 8 years of building a faction within the Ministry of Public Security, Lam has created a “framework” good enough to support him, so he dared to “treason.” Because once he betrays, there will be no turning back, and the Ministry of Public Security is the biggest support to keep him and his family safe. Therefore, Lam was very carefully prepared.
The faction supporting Lam, in addition to two prominent figures, Lieutenant General, Deputy Minister Luong Tam Quang and Lieutenant General, Deputy Minister Nguyen Duy Ngoc, also has 63 police directors of 63 provinces and cities. Perhaps, the Nghe An faction uses pressure from the Politburo to push Nguyen Duy Ngoc out of the Ministry of Public Security, but it cannot push out all 63 provincial police chiefs. During more than a year of temporarily sitting as minister, it would be difficult for Trac to behead all of these generals.
Furthermore, Lam’s son – Lieutenant Colonel To Long is still in office as Deputy Director of the A01 Foreign Security Department. Lam had to arrange a siege so that when he leaves the Ministry, his child would still be safe. Therefore, after Trac joines the Ministry of Public Security, he has to work very hard to limit the power of the Hung Yen faction. If Trac succeeds, the beneficiary will be Hue again.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Public Security is where hard power can be built, so every side wants to hold it. Therefore, if Trac holds this ministry, he will not be at peace with other factions. They will also find one way or another to drag him down.
It is unclear whether Trac has any plans for himself? For example, when he holds the ministry, does he risk taking the State President’s position to jump into the Four Pillars? If Trac has ambitions for power, that is the only way.
